Coastal Real Estate Group: November 2025 Market Update
Happy November! As we approach Thanksgiving and the holiday season, the Orange County housing market is following its usual seasonal patterns. Supply declined by almost 7% in October, although inventory is still about 20% higher than last year. Median home prices are showing signs of balance, suggesting a more neutral market environment for both buyers and sellers.
National Macro Trends
- Housing is slowly becoming more affordable as interest rates creep down.
- Average 30-year mortgage rate is 6.22%, a significant decline from earlier in 2025.
- Inventory levels remain steady, even as transaction volume increases.
- CME FedWatch predicts a 65% chance of a 0.25% Fed rate cut in December.
Median monthly P&I payments are declining as interest rates fall, benefiting new buyers. Homeowners who locked in rates in the 2–3% range are unlikely to move until rates drop further.
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 0.25% in October, bringing it to 3.75–4.0%. This helps prospective buyers and those looking to refinance. Inventory remains strong, growing 13.97% YoY, while existing home sales only rose 6.01%. Another potential rate cut may happen in December, depending on upcoming economic data.
Orange County Local Lowdown
- Median sale prices up 0.27% YoY in September 2025.
- Inventory decreased 6.8% MoM in October, but still 19.31% higher than last year.
- Median DOM is now 33 days, up 50% from last year.
OC median home prices are stabilizing at $1,401,250, a near-flat YoY increase. Inventory declined seasonally to 4,251 homes but remains higher than last year. Selling times have extended to 33 days, indicating buyers have more control. With 3.0 months of supply, OC has returned to a balanced market.
Charts & Data
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